Saturday, April 20, 2013

SPC Tornado Watch 125

WW0125 SAW
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW5     WW 125 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO 181425Z - 182200Z    AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..    40ENE MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/ - 40SSE HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /42NNW PXV - 41N ELD/    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.    MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.        LAT...LON 38528651 33919126 33919440 38528984        THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS    FOR WOU5.     

Watch 125 Status Report Messages:

 STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 125  VALID 181845Z - 181940Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PBF TO 30 NNE LIT TO 25 NNW ARG TO 10 SW SLO.  ..MARSH..04/18/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-011-021-025-031-035-037-041-043-055-063-067-069-075-077- 079-085-093-095-107-111-117-121-123-145-147-181940-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     BRADLEY		 CLAY		      CLEVELAND	     CRAIGHEAD		 CRITTENDEN	      CROSS		     DESHA		 DREW		      GREENE		     INDEPENDENCE	 JACKSON	      JEFFERSON	     LAWRENCE		 LEE		      LINCOLN 	     LONOKE		 MISSISSIPPI	      MONROE		     PHILLIPS		 POINSETT	      PRAIRIE 	     RANDOLPH		 ST. FRANCIS	      WHITE		     WOODRUFF		  $$   ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181940-  IL  .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ALEXANDER	     EDWARDS		 FRANKLIN	      GALLATIN	     HAMILTON		 HARDIN 	      JACKSON 	     JEFFERSON		 JOHNSON	      MASSAC		     PERRY		 POPE		      PULASKI 	     SALINE		 UNION		      WABASH		     WAYNE		 WHITE		      WILLIAMSON	      $$   INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181940-  IN  .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  GIBSON		     PIKE		 POSEY		      SPENCER 	     VANDERBURGH	 WARRICK	      $$   KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181940-  KY  .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BALLARD 	     CARLISLE		 CRITTENDEN	      FULTON		     GRAVES		 HENDERSON	      HICKMAN 	     LIVINGSTON 	 MCCRACKEN	      MARSHALL	     UNION		 WEBSTER	      $$   MOC017-023-031-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-181940-  MO  .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BOLLINGER	     BUTLER		 CAPE GIRARDEAU       DUNKLIN 	     MISSISSIPPI	 NEW MADRID	      PEMISCOT	     PERRY		 RIPLEY 	      SCOTT		     STODDARD		 WAYNE		      $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 125  VALID 181710Z - 181840Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HOT TO 35 NNW LIT TO 35 SSE UNO TO 35 SSW FAM TO 20 WSW SLO.  ..LEITMAN..04/18/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-053-055- 063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-121-123- 125-135-145-147-181840-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     BRADLEY		 CALHOUN	      CLAY		     CLEBURNE		 CLEVELAND	      CRAIGHEAD	     CRITTENDEN 	 CROSS		      DALLAS		     DESHA		 DREW		      FAULKNER	     GRANT		 GREENE 	      INDEPENDENCE	     JACKSON		 JEFFERSON	      LAWRENCE	     LEE		 LINCOLN	      LONOKE		     MISSISSIPPI	 MONROE 	      OUACHITA	     PHILLIPS		 POINSETT	      PRAIRIE 	     PULASKI		 RANDOLPH	      ST. FRANCIS	     SALINE		 SHARP		      WHITE		     WOODRUFF		  $$   ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181840-  IL  .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ALEXANDER	     EDWARDS		 FRANKLIN	      GALLATIN	     HAMILTON		 HARDIN 	      JACKSON 	     JEFFERSON		 JOHNSON	      MASSAC		     PERRY		 POPE		      PULASKI 	     SALINE		 UNION		      WABASH		     WAYNE		 WHITE		      WILLIAMSON	      $$   INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181840-  IN  .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  GIBSON		     PIKE		 POSEY		      SPENCER 	     VANDERBURGH	 WARRICK	      $$   KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181840-  KY  .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BALLARD 	     CARLISLE		 CRITTENDEN	      FULTON		     GRAVES		 HENDERSON	      HICKMAN 	     LIVINGSTON 	 MCCRACKEN	      MARSHALL	     UNION		 WEBSTER	      $$   MOC017-023-031-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-181840-  MO  .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BOLLINGER	     BUTLER		 CAPE GIRARDEAU       DUNKLIN 	     MISSISSIPPI	 NEW MADRID	      PEMISCOT	     PERRY		 RIPLEY 	      SCOTT		     STODDARD		 WAYNE		      $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 125  VALID 181625Z - 181740Z  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE TXK TO 20 ENE RUE TO 35 W POF TO 10 WNW FAM.  ..LEITMAN..04/18/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043-045- 051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-105- 107-111-117-119-121-123-125-135-137-145-147-181740-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     BRADLEY		 CALHOUN	      CLARK		     CLAY		 CLEBURNE	      CLEVELAND	     CONWAY		 CRAIGHEAD	      CRITTENDEN	     CROSS		 DALLAS 	      DESHA		     DREW		 FAULKNER	      GARLAND 	     GRANT		 GREENE 	      HOT SPRING	     INDEPENDENCE	 IZARD		      JACKSON 	     JEFFERSON		 LAWRENCE	      LEE		     LINCOLN		 LONOKE 	      MISSISSIPPI	     MONROE		 OUACHITA	      PERRY		     PHILLIPS		 POINSETT	      PRAIRIE 	     PULASKI		 RANDOLPH	      ST. FRANCIS	     SALINE		 SHARP		      STONE		     WHITE		 WOODRUFF	      $$   ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181740-  IL  .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ALEXANDER	     EDWARDS		 FRANKLIN	      GALLATIN	     HAMILTON		 HARDIN 	      JACKSON 	     JEFFERSON		 JOHNSON	      MASSAC		     PERRY		 POPE		      PULASKI 	     SALINE		 UNION		      WABASH		     WAYNE		 WHITE		      WILLIAMSON	      $$   INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181740-  IN  .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  GIBSON		     PIKE		 POSEY		      SPENCER 	     VANDERBURGH	 WARRICK	      $$   KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181740-  KY  .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BALLARD 	     CARLISLE		 CRITTENDEN	      FULTON		     GRAVES		 HENDERSON	      HICKMAN 	     LIVINGSTON 	 MCCRACKEN	      MARSHALL	     UNION		 WEBSTER	      $$   MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-207-223- 181740-  MO  .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BOLLINGER	     BUTLER		 CAPE GIRARDEAU       CARTER		     DUNKLIN		 MISSISSIPPI	      NEW MADRID	     OREGON		 PEMISCOT	      PERRY		     RIPLEY		 SCOTT		      STODDARD	     WAYNE		  $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 125  VALID 181525Z - 181640Z  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.  ..LEITMAN..04/18/13  ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...  &&  STATUS REPORT FOR WT 125   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS   ARC001-005-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043- 045-049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095- 097-103-105-107-109-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-135-137-141-145- 147-149-181640-  AR  .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ARKANSAS	     BAXTER		 BRADLEY	      CALHOUN 	     CLARK		 CLAY		      CLEBURNE	     CLEVELAND		 CONWAY 	      CRAIGHEAD	     CRITTENDEN 	 CROSS		      DALLAS		     DESHA		 DREW		      FAULKNER	     FULTON		 GARLAND	      GRANT		     GREENE		 HOT SPRING	      INDEPENDENCE	     IZARD		 JACKSON	      JEFFERSON	     LAWRENCE		 LEE		      LINCOLN 	     LONOKE		 MISSISSIPPI	      MONROE		     MONTGOMERY 	 OUACHITA	      PERRY		     PHILLIPS		 PIKE		      POINSETT	     POPE		 PRAIRIE	      PULASKI 	     RANDOLPH		 ST. FRANCIS	      SALINE		     SHARP		 STONE		      VAN BUREN	     WHITE		 WOODRUFF	      YELL		      $$   ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-181640-  IL  .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  ALEXANDER	     EDWARDS		 FRANKLIN	      GALLATIN	     HAMILTON		 HARDIN 	      JACKSON 	     JEFFERSON		 JOHNSON	      MASSAC		     PERRY		 POPE		      PULASKI 	     SALINE		 UNION		      WABASH		     WAYNE		 WHITE		      WILLIAMSON	      $$   INC051-125-129-147-163-173-181640-  IN  .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  GIBSON		     PIKE		 POSEY		      SPENCER 	     VANDERBURGH	 WARRICK	      $$   KYC007-039-055-075-083-101-105-139-145-157-225-233-181640-  KY  .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BALLARD 	     CARLISLE		 CRITTENDEN	      FULTON		     GRAVES		 HENDERSON	      HICKMAN 	     LIVINGSTON 	 MCCRACKEN	      MARSHALL	     UNION		 WEBSTER	      $$   MOC017-023-031-035-069-091-133-143-149-155-157-181-201-203-207- 223-181640-  MO  .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE  BOLLINGER	     BUTLER		 CAPE GIRARDEAU       CARTER		     DUNKLIN		 HOWELL 	      MISSISSIPPI	     NEW MADRID 	 OREGON 	      PEMISCOT	     PERRY		 RIPLEY 	      SCOTT		     SHANNON		 STODDARD	      WAYNE		      $$   THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$  
WW0125 Probability
Note: ?Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (30%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (10%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0125.html

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